USA "Flu" Mathematical Models. Updated Today. Mean = 175,000, Min 30k, Max 900k This Will Not Break the Country

stock sayeth:  "It's all about the exponent....the rate of decrease of the exponent."  

I use the 2 Day Leap, it's my method.   Analysis of past Pandemics have often used "new cases per week" but that is kind of clunky

The USA Death Numbers Exponent was as high as 1.6, and now is more like 1.2, that is great, but still far from the magical 1.0 where death rates start going down.  

Once you hit 1.0 then it starts declining more slowly, and the out-weeks exponent is critical to the number of total deaths.    Point of reference, USA normal annual Flu Deaths is around 36,000, but 70,000 is totally normal also.    A hard rain is going to fall.

And it might be .96 or .995 and that makes the difference between 30,000 deaths and 950,000 deaths, and those are very realistic upwards and downward bounded estimates.    Let's call it a 95% confidence level that the real numbers will end up between those 2.      

Throwing down....175,000 deaths in USA.

stock here.    I am kind of shocked to be producing the best "Pandemic" models, but then again....not really.    Who else has the ability but not the horse in the race......

Was the Spring Break "Debacle" actually a brilliant move?   A huge push towards the seemingly magic number of 60% exposed in order to have "Herd Immunity"....by a fraction of the population that shows a .3% lethality rate....and knowing that case numbers in the under 30YO range are vastly understated, say there are 3 times more cases than every gets reported.     So that means for the young 'uns, the lathality is .1%.....or just about the average flu.



stock out ------------------------------------------

stock here.    I am kind of shocked to be producing the best "Pandemic" models, but then again....not really.    Who else has the ability but not the horse in the race......

A quick overview of what the model looks like