stock here. Using data is always a good starting point. Do we really need to continue to point out the lies of the Globalist Owned worst offenders, CNN, ABC, NBC in that order.
Yes we do, because they lie in the face of my guess, 100,000 to 1,000,000 Americans will die in the next 4 months. But their goal is to make Trump look bad, while not covering the failures of the CDC and the medical system in general.
So GOM Globalist Owned Media is pretending, today, that Italy has it under control. Let's review the data.
Italy has had a massive jump in number of new cases.
Italy's "exponent" on the 2 Day Leap model by stock, is 1.28
USA is 1.21. The lower the better.
Exponent is the far right column of the colored chart
Orange is my Model Data
Green is Actual
Yellow is percent that the model is off
NOT BAD!
Below is a chart of the model and actual data, the Model is running a bit hot.
The chart below is Cured - Dead, a big Delta is good, and Italy recently got lucky because of time, or actually figured a better way to get people cured, or maybe they just needed the hospital bed and called them cured and kicked them out. Stuff like this will happen.
The last chart is ratio of Cured / Dead, an improvement, but kind of sad that you only have a 35% better chance of being cured than of dying.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Completed USA CV19 Model -- 40,000 to 90,000 Cases By April 11. You Might Not Want to Review the Model on June 11th, It's Below
I have been modeling Italy and nailing it within a few percent a day. Just finished model for USA.
By April 11, 40,000 to 90,000 depending on whether there is a big spike up when USA actually starts testing properly. I think the CDC is complicit and deep state in that regard, BTW
By June 11, 14,783,478 if no big spike (if CV19 is not already wide spread and just not detected) IF a big spike comes, my model comes off at the wheels because it would show 300M, but obviously not everyone will get this.
If you want the spreadsheet, it ain't pretty, but it's on the money. Check it out.
https://app.box.com/s/gikr8b94x5hrny31bngw0abf42y3c76e
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My spreadsheet, including Models for Italy, models for USA and another more exponential one from Mike Adams that I modified, added charts to......It show this Virus with an
By April 11, 40,000 to 90,000 depending on whether there is a big spike up when USA actually starts testing properly. I think the CDC is complicit and deep state in that regard, BTW
By June 11, 14,783,478 if no big spike (if CV19 is not already wide spread and just not detected) IF a big spike comes, my model comes off at the wheels because it would show 300M, but obviously not everyone will get this.
If you want the spreadsheet, it ain't pretty, but it's on the money. Check it out.
https://app.box.com/s/gikr8b94x5hrny31bngw0abf42y3c76e
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My spreadsheet, including Models for Italy, models for USA and another more exponential one from Mike Adams that I modified, added charts to......It show this Virus with an
R0 = 11.2
to 14.1
Which is way way above the CDC 2.2 to 2.4 total Balderdash.
Summary of results
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